Abstract： Objective To evaluate prediction validation of Sino System for Coronary Operative Risk Evaluation （SinoSCORE） on in-hospital mortality in adult heart surgery patients in West China Hospital.?Methods?We included clinical records of 2 088 consecutive adult patients undergoing heart surgery in West China Hospital from January 2010 to May 2012, who were also included in Chinese Adult Cardiac Surgical Registry.We compared the difference of preoperative risk factors for the patients between Chinese Adult Cardiac Surgical Registry and West China Hospital. SinoSCORE was used to predict in-hospital mortality of each patient and to evaluate the discrimination and calibration of SinoSCORE for the patients.?Results?Among the 2 088 patients in West China Hospital, there were 168 patients （8.05%） undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting （CABG）, 1 884 patients （90.23%） undergoing heart valve surgery, and 36 patients （1.72%） undergoing other surgical procedures. There was statistical difference in the risk factors including hyperlipemia, stroke, cardiovascular surgery history, and kidney disease between the two units.The observed in-hospital mortality was 2.25% （47/2 088）. The predicted in-hospital mortality calculated by SinoSCORE was 2.35% （49/2 088） with 95% confidence interval 2.18 to 2.47. SinoSCORE was able to predict in-hospital mortality of the patients with good discrimination （Hosmer Lemeshow test: χ2=3.164, P=0.582） and calibration （area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.751 with 95% confidence interval 0.719 to 0.924）. Conclusion SinoSCORE is an accurate predictor in predicting in-hospital mortality in adult heart surgery patients who are mainly from southwest China
Citation：
QIAN Yongjun,ZHANG Eryong,AN Qi,XIAO Xijun,YANG Jian,DONG Li,GUO Yingqiang,LIN Ke.. Predictive Value of SinoSCORE in-Hospital Mortality in Adult Patients Undergoing Heart Surgery: Report from West China Hospital Data of Chinese Adult Cardiac Surgical Registry. Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, 2012, 19(4): 362-365. doi:
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operative risk for Chinese population? Eur J Cardiothorac Surg， 2009， 35 （1）：54-58.
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江学成. 手术风险预测方法解读. 中国实用外科杂志， 2007， 27（9）：746-749.
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郑哲， 张路， 胡盛寿， 代表中国心血管外科注册登记协作组. 中国冠状动脉旁路移植手术风险评估系统. 中华心血管病杂志， 2010， 26 （10）：901-904.
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Roques F， Nashef SA， Michel P， et al. Risk factors and outcome in European cardiac surgery：analysis of the EuroSCORE multinational database of 19030 patients. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg， 1999， 15 （6）：816-822.
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Zheng Z， Li Y， Zhang S， et al. The Chinese coronary artery bypass grafting registry study：how well does the EuroSCORE predict.
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Li Y， Zheng Z， Hu S， et al. The Chinese coronary artery bypass grafting registry study：analysis of the national multicentre database of 9248 patients. Heart， 2009， 95 （14）：1140-1144.
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Zingone B， Pappalardo A， Dreas L. Logistic versus additive EuroSCORE. A comparative assessment of the two models in all independent population sample. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg， 2004， 26 （6）：1134-1140.
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Choong CK， Sergeant P， Nashef SA， et al. The EuroSCORE risk stratification system in the current era:how accurate is it and what should be done if it is inaccurate? Eur J Cardiothorac Surg， 2009， 35 （1）：59-61.
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Ghazy T， Dappert U， Ouda A， et al. A question of clinical reliability:observed versus EuroSCORE-predicted mortality after aortic valve replacement. J Heart Valve Dis， 2010， 19 （1）：16-20.
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Holinski S， Claus B， Christ T， et al. Overestimation of the operative risk by the EuroSCORE also in high-risk patients undergoing aortic valve replacement with a stentless biological prosthesis. Heart Surg Forum， 2010， 13 （1）：E13-E16.
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Parolari A， Pesce LL， Trezzi M， et al. EuroSCORE performance in valve surgery：a meta-analysis. Ann Thorac Surg， 2010， 89 （3）：787-793.
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郭惠明， 吴若彬， 肖学钧. SinoSCORE预测心血管外科手术病死率. 中华胸心血管外科杂志， 2011， 27 （2）：78-80.
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Wang C， Yao F， Han L， et al. Validation of the European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation （EuroSCORE） in Chinese heart valve surgery patients. J Heart Valve Dis， 2010， 19 （1）：21-27.
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葛翼鹏， 许建屏， 孙立忠. 欧洲心脏手术风险评估系统预测中国人心瓣膜手术后并发症的发生及预后. 中国胸心血管外科临床杂志， 2010， 17 （5）：357-360.
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Hanley JA， Mcneil BJ. The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic （ROC） curve. Radiology， 1982， 143 （1）：29-36.
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Kawachi Y， Nakashima A， Toshima Y， et al. Risk stratification analysis of operative mortality in heart and thoracic aorta surgery：comparison between Parsonnet and EuroSCORE additive model. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg， 2001， 20 （5）：961-966.
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Kawachi Y， Nakashima A， Toshima Y， et al. Evaluation of the quality of cardiovascular surgery care using risk stratification analysis according to the EuroSCORE additive model. Circ J， 2002， 66 （2）：145-148.
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Bhatti F， Grayson AD， Grotte G， et al. The logistic EuroSCORE in cardiac surgery：how well does it predict operative risk? Heart， 2006， 92 （12）：1817-1820.
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Yap CH， Reid C， Yii M， et al. Validation of the EuroSCORE model in Australia. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg， 2006， 29 （4）：441-446.
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- 1. operative risk for Chinese population? Eur J Cardiothorac Surg， 2009， 35 （1）：54-58.
- 2. 江学成. 手术风险预测方法解读. 中国实用外科杂志， 2007， 27（9）：746-749.
- 3. 郑哲， 张路， 胡盛寿， 代表中国心血管外科注册登记协作组. 中国冠状动脉旁路移植手术风险评估系统. 中华心血管病杂志， 2010， 26 （10）：901-904.
- 4. Nashef S， Roques F， Michel P， et al. European system for cardiacoperative risk evaluation（EuroSCORE）.Eur J Cardiothorac Surg， 1999， 16 （1）：9-13.
- 5. Roques F， Nashef SA， Michel P， et al. Risk factors and outcome in European cardiac surgery：analysis of the EuroSCORE multinational database of 19030 patients. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg， 1999， 15 （6）：816-822.
- 6. Nashef S， Roques F， Hammill BG， et al. Validation of European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation（EuroSCORE）in North American cardiac surgery.Eur J Cardiothorac Surg， 2002， 22 （1）：101-105.
- 7. Zheng Z， Li Y， Zhang S， et al. The Chinese coronary artery bypass grafting registry study：how well does the EuroSCORE predict.
- 8. Li Y， Zheng Z， Hu S， et al. The Chinese coronary artery bypass grafting registry study：analysis of the national multicentre database of 9248 patients. Heart， 2009， 95 （14）：1140-1144.
- 9. Zingone B， Pappalardo A， Dreas L. Logistic versus additive EuroSCORE. A comparative assessment of the two models in all independent population sample. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg， 2004， 26 （6）：1134-1140.
- 10. Choong CK， Sergeant P， Nashef SA， et al. The EuroSCORE risk stratification system in the current era:how accurate is it and what should be done if it is inaccurate? Eur J Cardiothorac Surg， 2009， 35 （1）：59-61.
- 11. Ghazy T， Dappert U， Ouda A， et al. A question of clinical reliability:observed versus EuroSCORE-predicted mortality after aortic valve replacement. J Heart Valve Dis， 2010， 19 （1）：16-20.
- 12. Holinski S， Claus B， Christ T， et al. Overestimation of the operative risk by the EuroSCORE also in high-risk patients undergoing aortic valve replacement with a stentless biological prosthesis. Heart Surg Forum， 2010， 13 （1）：E13-E16.
- 13. Parolari A， Pesce LL， Trezzi M， et al. EuroSCORE performance in valve surgery：a meta-analysis. Ann Thorac Surg， 2010， 89 （3）：787-793.
- 14. 郭惠明， 吴若彬， 肖学钧. SinoSCORE预测心血管外科手术病死率. 中华胸心血管外科杂志， 2011， 27 （2）：78-80.
- 15. Wang C， Yao F， Han L， et al. Validation of the European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation （EuroSCORE） in Chinese heart valve surgery patients. J Heart Valve Dis， 2010， 19 （1）：21-27.
- 16. 葛翼鹏， 许建屏， 孙立忠. 欧洲心脏手术风险评估系统预测中国人心瓣膜手术后并发症的发生及预后. 中国胸心血管外科临床杂志， 2010， 17 （5）：357-360.
- 17. Hanley JA， Mcneil BJ. The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic （ROC） curve. Radiology， 1982， 143 （1）：29-36.
- 18. Kawachi Y， Nakashima A， Toshima Y， et al. Risk stratification analysis of operative mortality in heart and thoracic aorta surgery：comparison between Parsonnet and EuroSCORE additive model. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg， 2001， 20 （5）：961-966.
- 19. Kawachi Y， Nakashima A， Toshima Y， et al. Evaluation of the quality of cardiovascular surgery care using risk stratification analysis according to the EuroSCORE additive model. Circ J， 2002， 66 （2）：145-148.
- 20. Bhatti F， Grayson AD， Grotte G， et al. The logistic EuroSCORE in cardiac surgery：how well does it predict operative risk? Heart， 2006， 92 （12）：1817-1820.
- 21. Yap CH， Reid C， Yii M， et al. Validation of the EuroSCORE model in Australia. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg， 2006， 29 （4）：441-446.
